Analisis Pengaruh Forecasting Demand Terhadap Efisiensi Manajemen Persediaan
Keywords:
Demand Forecasting, ARIMA, Inventory Management
Abstract
This study analyzes the impact of demand forecasting on inventory management efficiency, focusing on the implementation of the ARIMA method in the context of a manufacturing company in Indonesia. Using a quantitative case study approach, the research explores the relationship between forecasting accuracy and key inventory performance metrics. Results indicate that improved forecasting accuracy significantly enhances inventory efficiency, with the ARIMA method outperforming traditional methods. The implementation of ARIMA resulted in a 36.8% increase in Inventory Turnover Ratio and a 53.3% decrease in stockout rate. Time series analysis revealed a long-term improvement trend in inventory efficiency with significant seasonal components. This research provides valuable insights for practitioners and academics on the critical role of demand forecasting in optimizing inventory management and the potential of the ARIMA method in improving companies' operational efficiency.
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References
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Hamirsa, M. H., & Rumita, R. (2022). Usulan Perencanaan Peramalan (Forecating) dan Safety Stock Persediaan Spare Part Busi Champion Type RA7YC-2 (EV-01/EW-01/2) Menggunakan metode Time Series Pada PT Triangle Motorindo Semarang. Industrial Engineering Online Journal, 11(1), 1–10. https://ejournal3.undip.ac.id/index.php/ieoj/article/view/34373
Hassyddiqy, H., & Hasdiana, H. (2023). Analisis Peramalan (Forecasting) Penjualan Dengan Metode ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Pada Huebee Indonesia. Data Sciences Indonesia (DSI), 2(2), 92–100. https://doi.org/10.47709/dsi.v2i2.2022
Hedayani, R., Saputra, R. S., Permana, F. I., & Mahardhika, G. N. (2016). Analisis Peramalan Kebutuhan Persediaan Untuk Keunggulan Bersaing Pada Perusahaan Orca. Jurnal Manajemen, 5(2), 93–104. https://doi.org/10.26460/jm.v5i2.195
Komala, S., Noor Andriana, A., & Mulawarman, U. (2024). Demand Forecasting Analysis In Determining Goods Procurement Planinng Using The Exponential Smoothing Method In The Serbi.Smr Trading Business In Samarinda City Analisis Peramalan Permintaan Dalam Menentukan Perencanaan Pengadaan Barang Dengan Penerapan Metode Exponential Smoothing Pada Usaha Dagang Serbi.Smr Di Kota Samarindaid 2 *Corresponding Author. Management Studies and Entrepreneurship Journal, 5(1), 2738–2746. http://journal.yrpipku.com/index.php/msej
Lusiana, A., & Yuliarty, P. (2020). PENERAPAN METODE PERAMALAN (FORECASTING) PADA PERMINTAAN ATAP di PT X. Industri Inovatif : Jurnal Teknik Industri, 10(1), 11–20. https://doi.org/10.36040/industri.v10i1.2530
Putri, O., & Demand, I. (2023). Demand Forecasting Pada Manajemen Persediaan Suku Cadang : a Systematic Literature Review. Jurnal Teknik, 03(02), 84–90.
Sutisna, F., & Hendy. (2019). Analisis Perbandingan Tingkat Kesalahan Metode Peramalan Sebagai Upaya Perencanaan Pengelolaan Persediaan yang Optimal pada PT Duta Indah Sejahtera. Jurnal Bina Manajemen, 8(1), 34–50. https://wiyatamandala.e-journal.id/JBM/article/view/54
Swasono, M., Swasono, H., Dianta, M., & Muthmainah, H. (2023). Pemanfaatan Teknologi Informasi dalam Optimalisasi Produksi Tanaman Pangan: Studi Bibliometrik Skala Nasional. Jurnal Multidisiplin West Science, Vol. 02, No. 08, 668–683. https://doi.org/10.58812/jmws.v2i08.589
Syakura, A., Hendaryani, O., & Ramadhan, R. (2016). Analisis Penggunaan Peramalan dalam Meminimalkan Biaya Simpan Produk Linzhi Plus pada CV. HN. PERFORMA : Media Ilmiah Teknik Industri, 15(2), 93–104. https://doi.org/10.20961/performa.15.2.9826
Usman, S., Jeffry, J., & Aziz, F. (2022). Forecasting Pengendalian Persediaan Suku Cadang Menggunakan Metode Naive. Al-Ulum: Jurnal Sains Dan Teknologi, 8(1), 47. https://doi.org/10.31602/ajst.v8i1.8840
Kota Denpasar Provinsi Bali. E-Jurnal Agribisnis Dan Agrowisata, 5(3), 618– 628.
Chebet, E. (2019). Effects of Inventory Management System on Firm Performance – An Empirical Study. International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology, 4(9), 91–100.
Gordon, S. A., & Gupte, J. (2016). Overview of the Classic Economic Order Quantity Approach to Inventory Management. The Business Age, 1(1), 2455– 2470.
Hafnika, F., Farmaciawaty, D. A., Adhiutama, A., & Basri, M. H. (2016). Improvement of Inventory Control Using Continuous Review Policy in A Local Hospital at Bandung City, Indonesia. The Asian Journal of Technology Management (AJTM), 9(2), 109–119. https://doi.org/10.12695/ajtm.2016.9.2.5
Handoko, T. H. (2019). Dasar-Dasar Manajemen Produksi dan Operasi (1st ed.).
Yogyakarta: BPFE.
Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2015). Manajemen Operasi (Manajemen Keberlangsunan dan Rantai Pasokan) (11th ed.). Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
Juventia, J., & Hartanti, L. P. . (2016). Analisis Persediaan Bahan Baku PT. BS dengan Metode Economic Order Quantity (EOQ). Jurnal Gema Aktualita, 5(1), 55–63.
Kumar, G. A., Anzil, K. A., Ashik, K., James, A. T., & Ashok, J. K. (2017). Effective Inventory Management System through Selective Inventory Control. Imperial Journal of Interdisciplinary Research, 3(6), 152–156.
Lestari, R. I. (2015). Designing Inventory Management System: A Case of Retail Store in Cianjur, Indonesia. Management Finance Economics, 1(1), 275–282.
Listyorini, P. I. (2016). Perencanaan dan Pengendalian Obat Generik dengan Metode Analisis ABC, EOQ dan ROP (Studi Kasus di Unit Gudang Farmasi RS PKU ‘Aisyiyah Boyolali). Jurnal Ilmiah Rekam Medis Dan Informatika Kesehatan, 6(2), 19–25.
Macias, R. G. (2020). Inventory Management and Logistics Optimization: A Data Mining Practical Approach. Scientific Journal of Logistics, 16(4), 535–547.
Maryati, S. (2016). Evaluating the Performance of Inventory Management The Production Division of PT. Tiga Serangkai Surakarta as a Case Study. Shirkah: Journal of Economics and Business, 1(1), 93–112.
Micah, E. E. M., Adekunle, M. K., & Adeboye, A. (2019). Assesment of Electronic Inventory Management Systems and Utilisation in the Healthcare System in Abuja, FCT Nigeria. Europan Journal of Business and Inovation Research, 7(6), 1–17.
Mujiono, L. P. R., & Fauji, D. A. S. (2017). Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Pipa Air PVC Menggunakan Metode ABC pada Toko Bangunan UD. Mansur Kecamatan Papar. Simki-Economic, 1(3), 2–11.
Najoan, R. J., Palandeng, I. D., & Sumarauw, J. S. . (2019). Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Semen dengan Menggunakan Metode EOQ pada Toko Sulindo Bangunan. Jurnal EMBA, 7(3), 4387–4396.
Nilawati, A., & Giyanti, I. (2016). Integrasi Metode ABC dan Multi Item EOQ with Discount dalam Pengendalian Persediaan Obat Dispensing (Studi Kasus: Apotek XYZ). Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri Dan Informasi, 4(2), 82–88.
Nugraha, A., Sukardi, & Rifin, A. (2016). Efficiency of Raw Material Inventories in Improving Supply Chain Performance of CV. Fiva Food. Indonesian Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship, 2(1), 23–32.
Pujawan, I. N., & Mahendrawati. (2010). Supply Chain Management (2nd ed.).
Surabaya: Guna Widya.
Putra, D. G. E. N., & Purnawati, N. K. (2018). Kinerja Manajemen Persediaan Barang Dagangan PT. Artha Dinamis Sentosa Bali. E-Jurnal Manajemen, 7(10), 5599–5627.
Putra, I. M. A. D., & Rahyuda, A. G. (2019). Analisis Kinerja Manajemen Persediaan di Barjaz Company Menggunakan Pendekatan EOQ. E-Jurnal Manajemen, 8(1), 7163–7190.
Radasanu, A. C. (2016). Inventory Management, Service Level and Safety Stock.
Journal of Public Administration, Finance and Law, 9(1), 145–153.
Rambitan, B. F., Sumarauw, J. S. B., & Jan, A. H. (2018). Analisis Penerapan Manajemen Persediaan pada CV. Indospice Manado. Jurnal EMBA, 6(3), 1448–1457.
Shu, X. H., & Indriyani, R. (2015). Analisis Inventory Management pada PT. Sarana Lubritama Semesta. Jurnal AGORA, 3(1), 470–476.
Soni, H., Pitroda, J., & Bhavshar, J. J. (2016). Analyzing Inventory Material Management Control Technique on Residential Construction Project. International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering, Science and Management, 2(3), 3071–3077.
Sunhal, A. S., & Mangal, D. (2017). Analysis of Inventory Management in a Supply Chain by Using Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Model. International Journal of Engineering Sciences and Research Technology, 6(10), 303–309.
Supit, T., & Jan, A. H. (2015). Analisis Persediaan Bahan Baku pada Industri Mebel di Desa Leilem. Jurnal EMBA, 3(1), 1230–1241.
Syafitri, L. (2015). Pengaruh Inventory Turnover dan Total Asset Turnover terhadap Profitabilitas pada CV. Teluk Kenanga Ogan Ilir. Jurnal Ilmiah STIE MDP, 4(2), 74–83.
Yanti, T. H., & Farida, Y. (2016). Analisis ABC dalam Perencanaan Obat Antibiotik di Rumah Sakit Ortopedi di Surakarta. Journal of Pharmaceutical Science and Clinical Research, 1(1), 51–57.
Azaro, K., Riwajanti, N. I., & Kusmintarti, A. (2020). Triple Exponential Smoothing: Forecasting Perbandingan Penumpang Kereta Api Dan Pesawat Terbang. Media Mahardhika, 18(2), 277–286. https://doi.org/10.29062/mahardika.v18i2.156
BANTACUT, T. (2018). LOGISTIK 4.0 Dalam Manajemen Rantai Pasok Beras Perum BULOG. Jurnal Pangan, 27(2), 141–154. https://doi.org/10.33964/jp.v27i2.371
Cahyani, E., Nururrohmah, T., & Zein Saleh, M. (2023). Peran Pemasaran Global dalam Mendorong Kemajuan Ekonomi Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, Ekonomi Dan Kewirausahaan, 3, 229–237. https://doi.org/10.55606/jimek.v3i3.2472
Donneli, E. (2024). Big Data dan Peramalan Permintaan Rantai Pasokan dalam Pemasaran Digital UMKM. Manajemen Bussiness Innovation Cofference-MBIC, 7, 266–277. https://jurnal.untan.ac.id/index.php/MBIC/index
Fadhillah, M. H., & Fahreza, M. (2023). Pendekatan Ekonomi Sirkular sebagai Model Pengembangan Bisnis melalui Pemanfaatan Aplikasi pada Usaha Kecil dan Menengah Pasca Covid-19. Coopetition : Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, 14(1), 55–66. https://doi.org/10.32670/coopetition.v14i1.2269
Hamid, R., Utami, B., Wijayanti, T., Herawati, B., Perdana, A., Permana, D., Siswanto, A., Manaf, P., Iswahyudi, M., Susiang, M., & Hidayat, A. (2023). MANAJEMEN STRATEGIS (Konsep dan Aplikasi dalam Bisnis).
Hamirsa, M. H., & Rumita, R. (2022). Usulan Perencanaan Peramalan (Forecating) dan Safety Stock Persediaan Spare Part Busi Champion Type RA7YC-2 (EV-01/EW-01/2) Menggunakan metode Time Series Pada PT Triangle Motorindo Semarang. Industrial Engineering Online Journal, 11(1), 1–10. https://ejournal3.undip.ac.id/index.php/ieoj/article/view/34373
Hassyddiqy, H., & Hasdiana, H. (2023). Analisis Peramalan (Forecasting) Penjualan Dengan Metode ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Pada Huebee Indonesia. Data Sciences Indonesia (DSI), 2(2), 92–100. https://doi.org/10.47709/dsi.v2i2.2022
Hedayani, R., Saputra, R. S., Permana, F. I., & Mahardhika, G. N. (2016). Analisis Peramalan Kebutuhan Persediaan Untuk Keunggulan Bersaing Pada Perusahaan Orca. Jurnal Manajemen, 5(2), 93–104. https://doi.org/10.26460/jm.v5i2.195
Komala, S., Noor Andriana, A., & Mulawarman, U. (2024). Demand Forecasting Analysis In Determining Goods Procurement Planinng Using The Exponential Smoothing Method In The Serbi.Smr Trading Business In Samarinda City Analisis Peramalan Permintaan Dalam Menentukan Perencanaan Pengadaan Barang Dengan Penerapan Metode Exponential Smoothing Pada Usaha Dagang Serbi.Smr Di Kota Samarindaid 2 *Corresponding Author. Management Studies and Entrepreneurship Journal, 5(1), 2738–2746. http://journal.yrpipku.com/index.php/msej
Lusiana, A., & Yuliarty, P. (2020). PENERAPAN METODE PERAMALAN (FORECASTING) PADA PERMINTAAN ATAP di PT X. Industri Inovatif : Jurnal Teknik Industri, 10(1), 11–20. https://doi.org/10.36040/industri.v10i1.2530
Putri, O., & Demand, I. (2023). Demand Forecasting Pada Manajemen Persediaan Suku Cadang : a Systematic Literature Review. Jurnal Teknik, 03(02), 84–90.
Sutisna, F., & Hendy. (2019). Analisis Perbandingan Tingkat Kesalahan Metode Peramalan Sebagai Upaya Perencanaan Pengelolaan Persediaan yang Optimal pada PT Duta Indah Sejahtera. Jurnal Bina Manajemen, 8(1), 34–50. https://wiyatamandala.e-journal.id/JBM/article/view/54
Swasono, M., Swasono, H., Dianta, M., & Muthmainah, H. (2023). Pemanfaatan Teknologi Informasi dalam Optimalisasi Produksi Tanaman Pangan: Studi Bibliometrik Skala Nasional. Jurnal Multidisiplin West Science, Vol. 02, No. 08, 668–683. https://doi.org/10.58812/jmws.v2i08.589
Syakura, A., Hendaryani, O., & Ramadhan, R. (2016). Analisis Penggunaan Peramalan dalam Meminimalkan Biaya Simpan Produk Linzhi Plus pada CV. HN. PERFORMA : Media Ilmiah Teknik Industri, 15(2), 93–104. https://doi.org/10.20961/performa.15.2.9826
Usman, S., Jeffry, J., & Aziz, F. (2022). Forecasting Pengendalian Persediaan Suku Cadang Menggunakan Metode Naive. Al-Ulum: Jurnal Sains Dan Teknologi, 8(1), 47. https://doi.org/10.31602/ajst.v8i1.8840
Kota Denpasar Provinsi Bali. E-Jurnal Agribisnis Dan Agrowisata, 5(3), 618– 628.
Chebet, E. (2019). Effects of Inventory Management System on Firm Performance – An Empirical Study. International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology, 4(9), 91–100.
Gordon, S. A., & Gupte, J. (2016). Overview of the Classic Economic Order Quantity Approach to Inventory Management. The Business Age, 1(1), 2455– 2470.
Hafnika, F., Farmaciawaty, D. A., Adhiutama, A., & Basri, M. H. (2016). Improvement of Inventory Control Using Continuous Review Policy in A Local Hospital at Bandung City, Indonesia. The Asian Journal of Technology Management (AJTM), 9(2), 109–119. https://doi.org/10.12695/ajtm.2016.9.2.5
Handoko, T. H. (2019). Dasar-Dasar Manajemen Produksi dan Operasi (1st ed.).
Yogyakarta: BPFE.
Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2015). Manajemen Operasi (Manajemen Keberlangsunan dan Rantai Pasokan) (11th ed.). Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
Juventia, J., & Hartanti, L. P. . (2016). Analisis Persediaan Bahan Baku PT. BS dengan Metode Economic Order Quantity (EOQ). Jurnal Gema Aktualita, 5(1), 55–63.
Kumar, G. A., Anzil, K. A., Ashik, K., James, A. T., & Ashok, J. K. (2017). Effective Inventory Management System through Selective Inventory Control. Imperial Journal of Interdisciplinary Research, 3(6), 152–156.
Lestari, R. I. (2015). Designing Inventory Management System: A Case of Retail Store in Cianjur, Indonesia. Management Finance Economics, 1(1), 275–282.
Listyorini, P. I. (2016). Perencanaan dan Pengendalian Obat Generik dengan Metode Analisis ABC, EOQ dan ROP (Studi Kasus di Unit Gudang Farmasi RS PKU ‘Aisyiyah Boyolali). Jurnal Ilmiah Rekam Medis Dan Informatika Kesehatan, 6(2), 19–25.
Macias, R. G. (2020). Inventory Management and Logistics Optimization: A Data Mining Practical Approach. Scientific Journal of Logistics, 16(4), 535–547.
Maryati, S. (2016). Evaluating the Performance of Inventory Management The Production Division of PT. Tiga Serangkai Surakarta as a Case Study. Shirkah: Journal of Economics and Business, 1(1), 93–112.
Micah, E. E. M., Adekunle, M. K., & Adeboye, A. (2019). Assesment of Electronic Inventory Management Systems and Utilisation in the Healthcare System in Abuja, FCT Nigeria. Europan Journal of Business and Inovation Research, 7(6), 1–17.
Mujiono, L. P. R., & Fauji, D. A. S. (2017). Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Pipa Air PVC Menggunakan Metode ABC pada Toko Bangunan UD. Mansur Kecamatan Papar. Simki-Economic, 1(3), 2–11.
Najoan, R. J., Palandeng, I. D., & Sumarauw, J. S. . (2019). Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Semen dengan Menggunakan Metode EOQ pada Toko Sulindo Bangunan. Jurnal EMBA, 7(3), 4387–4396.
Nilawati, A., & Giyanti, I. (2016). Integrasi Metode ABC dan Multi Item EOQ with Discount dalam Pengendalian Persediaan Obat Dispensing (Studi Kasus: Apotek XYZ). Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri Dan Informasi, 4(2), 82–88.
Nugraha, A., Sukardi, & Rifin, A. (2016). Efficiency of Raw Material Inventories in Improving Supply Chain Performance of CV. Fiva Food. Indonesian Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship, 2(1), 23–32.
Pujawan, I. N., & Mahendrawati. (2010). Supply Chain Management (2nd ed.).
Surabaya: Guna Widya.
Putra, D. G. E. N., & Purnawati, N. K. (2018). Kinerja Manajemen Persediaan Barang Dagangan PT. Artha Dinamis Sentosa Bali. E-Jurnal Manajemen, 7(10), 5599–5627.
Putra, I. M. A. D., & Rahyuda, A. G. (2019). Analisis Kinerja Manajemen Persediaan di Barjaz Company Menggunakan Pendekatan EOQ. E-Jurnal Manajemen, 8(1), 7163–7190.
Radasanu, A. C. (2016). Inventory Management, Service Level and Safety Stock.
Journal of Public Administration, Finance and Law, 9(1), 145–153.
Rambitan, B. F., Sumarauw, J. S. B., & Jan, A. H. (2018). Analisis Penerapan Manajemen Persediaan pada CV. Indospice Manado. Jurnal EMBA, 6(3), 1448–1457.
Shu, X. H., & Indriyani, R. (2015). Analisis Inventory Management pada PT. Sarana Lubritama Semesta. Jurnal AGORA, 3(1), 470–476.
Soni, H., Pitroda, J., & Bhavshar, J. J. (2016). Analyzing Inventory Material Management Control Technique on Residential Construction Project. International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering, Science and Management, 2(3), 3071–3077.
Sunhal, A. S., & Mangal, D. (2017). Analysis of Inventory Management in a Supply Chain by Using Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Model. International Journal of Engineering Sciences and Research Technology, 6(10), 303–309.
Supit, T., & Jan, A. H. (2015). Analisis Persediaan Bahan Baku pada Industri Mebel di Desa Leilem. Jurnal EMBA, 3(1), 1230–1241.
Syafitri, L. (2015). Pengaruh Inventory Turnover dan Total Asset Turnover terhadap Profitabilitas pada CV. Teluk Kenanga Ogan Ilir. Jurnal Ilmiah STIE MDP, 4(2), 74–83.
Yanti, T. H., & Farida, Y. (2016). Analisis ABC dalam Perencanaan Obat Antibiotik di Rumah Sakit Ortopedi di Surakarta. Journal of Pharmaceutical Science and Clinical Research, 1(1), 51–57.
Published
2024-07-02
How to Cite
Matahurila, G., Putra, F., Himmah, L., Maulana, A., Riyadi, S., & Pandin, M. (2024). Analisis Pengaruh Forecasting Demand Terhadap Efisiensi Manajemen Persediaan. As-Syirkah: Islamic Economic & Financial Journal, 3(3), 1475 -. https://doi.org/10.56672/syirkah.v3i3.283
Section
Articles
